As regular readers of this blogerature know, I don't often write of weather-forecast-related issues. After all, I try to keep in mind the old adage about "write what you know." Also, if you are a "regular" reader, that means you are undoubtedly "irregular" in other areas of your life and should seek some sort of help. However, in light of Saturday's morning deluge, I think I need to offer a serious, scientific explanation (also known as "a cry for mercy and understanding!") for why it rained on a morning that was originally forecast to be cool and dry. As of Wednesday of last week, the forecast was for any rain chance to hold off until late Sunday into Monday. So, I was happy to tell folks that the weather for the Jared Coones Pumpkin Run and the Diabetes Walk at the Truman Sports Complex and the Childrens TLC Pumpkin Patch and several other Saturday morning events would be cool and dry. By Thursday morning, I started to hedge my bets a little by saying, "Well, there's a chance for some showers...." By Friday, I just took the morning off completely. Basically, the whole system got speedy on us. With some gusty south winds on Friday, the moisture content in the atmosphere went up and the approaching cold front had plenty of juicy stuff to work with...resulting in the two to four inch rainfall amounts on Saturday.

I heard the rumbles all night leading into Saturday morning. As I drove over to Black Bob Elementary to see what was up with the Pumpkin Run, I went through several disguises...fake nose...mustache...wig...bald-head...Bryan Busby-mask. Then, decided I would be brave and face the music as myself. As I courageously sneaked into the school through an air-conditioning vent, I heard mostly happy voices. After looking over the radar with all the race officials, the tough decision was made to call off the run. It was the first time in nine years that happened. Now, the first year, it was pouring but the lightning didn't start until the run was underway. This time around, the sky was ablaze in addition to the street-flooding downpours. Larry Moore was there to address the crowd and made it clear that he did not know who I was. The Jared Coones Pumpkin Run and Walk is really a family affair. The Coones "Family" of runners and volunteers gets bigger every year. They all would have shown up to support Tom Coones and the wonderful array of causes the run supports regardless of the weather. Maybe next time around we will get back to the kind of weather we have had for most of the Pumpkin Runs: chilly rays of sunshine.

I remember back in college, a meteorology professor once stated that any TV weatherperson who gives you a forecast more than three days out, is just guessing. This was right before he gave me an F on my first class essay, "The Effects Of High Humidity On The Playing Of Jarts In The Backyard While Listening To The Everly Brothers And Eating Hot Dogs." Of course, his comments were made many years ago when much of forecasting depended on tea leaves and your Great Aunt Matilda's left elbow. (Just for the record, I still use those sources of information.) To be fair and honest, which is not always easy for a TV weatherperson, I think the new radars, the high-tech gadgets and gizmos, all work together to keep more people safe and aware than ever before. However, on a day-t0-day basis, forecasting can still be a challenge...like last week. So, to all of you who got rained on, on Saturday morning, I apologize. I could make the excuse that I did start to alter the forecast a little by Thursday, but, really, it was more rain than I'd expected even on Thursday. By Friday, I had updated the forecast on KCMO Talk Radio 710 and, for the "in-my-living-room" weathercasts that I force my kids to watch when I'm on vacation, I got the forecast closer to right. But, unless you were looking in my window, you'd have missed that.

Over the years, people have been very forgiving and understanding about weather that messes up plans. On the other hand, from my point of view, I've become much more likely to hedge my bets. I remember when I first started back in Madison, I got a call, on a Friday, from a father of the bride asking about a Saturday forecast for the outdoor wedding and reception they had planned. I was very confident in telling him how lovely the day was going to be...cocky, in fact. Well, you know the story. It poured on Saturday. I got a call back on Monday in which the aforementioned father of the bride offered to force feed me what was left of the saturated wedding cake...including the little bride and groom on top.

Years later, I completely missed another call on a snowstorm and spent the entire next FirstNews wearing sunglasses and calling myself Sven.

So, this morning, Monday, on FirstNews, the extended forecast calls for the upcoming weekend to be sunny, dry and in the 60s. We'll see. Sincerely, Sven.